iPad favorable to e-book market but won’t kill Kindle – analysts

By EDISON D. ONG
March 6, 2010, 3:52pm
Apple CEO Steve Jobs holds the new ‘iPad’ during the launch of Apple's new tablet computing device in San Francisco.
Apple CEO Steve Jobs holds the new ‘iPad’ during the launch of Apple's new tablet computing device in San Francisco.

Even if a single unit has yet to be shipped, Apple’s iPad tablet device is already eliciting tremendous interest among e-book enthusiasts. Analysts, however, believe that its release could be also advantageous to Kindle, the current king of e-book readers.

“Although this seems like bad news for Amazon (maker of Kindle), the iPad will certainly increase the market for e-books,” said Adam Leach, principal analyst of ICT research company Ovum.

The London-based analyst firm noted that the revenue-generating capacity of the e-book market appears significant, with early estimates for the Kindle 2 last year suggesting that the device had generated over $100 million in revenues in little more than two months after its launch in February.

Apple, Ovum said, would surely be aiming higher with the iPad. “Like the iPhone, the key to the iPad’s success will be the value added by the enthusiastic community of Apple developers,” Leach said.

The research firm said the iPad is based on the iPhone OS, and applications built for the iPhone will run on the iPad, providing users with access to over 140,000 existing applications, giving them content from the start.

“However, the real value will be delivered once developers start delivering applications optimized for the iPad. Although this will require extra effort for developers and cause fragmentation, some will be motivated by first-mover advantage,” it said.

Ovum said the larger shift will happen once there is a proven addressable market. The iPad, like the first versions of the iPhone, has a number of limitations (such as no camera and no multi-tasking capability), and it is tempting to believe that these will limit its success, it said.

The analyst firm said Apple will refine the iPad through OS updates and new hardware, but stressed that it still needs to deliver a compelling experience for the initial version of the iPad. “It cannot rely purely on improvements that are not yet delivered to establish the product,” it said.

Arizona-based analyst In-Stat, on the other hand, said although the iPad looks formidable, it’s unlikely that it would annihilate Kindle and Sony’s e-reader, which are both firmly established in the US market.

“Overall, the e-reader market continues to heat up as Amazon aggressively markets its Kindle lineup, Sony expands its offerings, and new market entrants continue to crawl out of the woodwork,” the research firm said.

In-Stat said additional market drivers that include international expansion of e-book availability, anticipated price declines, and the electronic distribution of newspapers would widen the market further.

“In the short term, though, I don’t see the iPad demolishing Kindle sales,” Stephanie Ethier, In-Stat analyst, said in a statement. “Today’s e-reader customers are looking primarily for a seamless e-book discovery+purchase+download experience. In other words, they’re buying Kindles to read.”

Based on In-Stat’s research, worldwide e-reader shipments are expected to reach 28.6 million units in 2013, up from 924,000 in 2008.

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Apple CEO Steve Jobs holds the new ‘iPad’ during the launch of Apple's new tablet computing device in San Francisco.11.54 KB

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