BSP expected to further unwind some of its stimulus measures

March 9, 2010, 4:42pm

The Philippines will consider unwinding some of its stimulus measures even as it may keep interest rates unchanged to support the economic recovery, central bank Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said Tuesday.

“There are reasons to review the crisis intervention measures that we put in place during the height of the global financial crisis,” Guinigundo, who meets other policy makers this week to decide on borrowing costs, said in an interview Tuesday. “The policy rates can be maintained at this point as our inflation outlook remains positive and benign.”

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas earlier this year raised the rediscounting rate, one of the interest rates it charges lenders for borrowing money from the central bank, joining policy makers from China to India in withdrawing monetary stimulus. It kept benchmark borrowing costs unchanged at a record-low 4 percent in January to strengthen the nation’s economic recovery.

“The central bank will tighten but policy makers will only increase the interest rate in June,” Luz Lorenzo, an economist at ATR-Kim Eng Securities Inc. in Manila, said before the interview. “They may do some other adjustments such as lessening the budget available for the rediscounting window.”

Policy makers will review all measures put in place to counter the global financial crisis now that financial markets have stabilized, including reducing the budget for the rediscounting facility, Guinigundo said. The rediscounting window is a BSPl facility that allows lenders to borrow from the central bank using loans as collateral.

Low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and faster growth in Asia are spurring capital flows into the region, prompting China to start draining excess cash from the economy to prevent asset bubbles.

Australia and Vietnam have raised borrowing costs as inflation accelerates, and Malaysia last week increased its overnight policy rate, saying it wants to avoid “financial imbalances”.

The Philippine central bank “will need to see more signs that growth is holding before they increase the policy rate,” said Lorenzo. “Inflation is still benign. The strong peso is dampening imported inflation and growth is still weak.”

All 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its March 11 meeting.

The central bank may lower its 2010 inflation forecast to 4 percent from 4.7 percent on lower oil prices, Guinigundo said last week. Consumer-price gains in the Philippines eased for a second  month in February to 4.2 percent.

BSP forecasts inflation may slow to a range of 3.4 percent to 3.5 percent in 2011, from an estimated 4 percent this year, Guinigundo said.

Philippine economic growth accelerated to a one-year high of 1.8 percent last quarter from a decade-low 0.4 percent in the previous three months. The government forecasts the economy will expand 2.6 percent to 3.6 percent in 2010.

“The outlook is still fragile, domestic capital formation is still weak, private consumption was lower compared to the previous years,” Guinigundo said. “There is scope to continuing both monetary and fiscal accommodation.”

Benchmark four-year bonds advanced, pushing the yield to the lowest in two months.

Asia is leading a recovery from the worst global recession since World War II, lifting sales at the region’s exporters, property and food companies. Jollibee Foods Corp., the fast-food chain that outsells McDonald’s Corp. in the Philippines, is looking forward “to a more robust growth in 2010,” the company said last month. (Bloomberg)