Philippine crop losses due to ill-effects of an El Niño-induced drought surged to a preliminary estimate of P11.2 billion, sharply higher from an estimate of only P8 billion just last week, the Department of Agriculture said.

This puts the country at greater risk of posting a contraction in farm output in the first quarter, with the weather anomaly also threatening agriculture production in the second quarter.

An output contraction in the farm sector could also exert pressure on the country's economic growth this year, following last year's economic downturn.

Agriculture accounts for one-fifth of gross domestic product and employs around four in every 10 Filipinos.

The latest estimate also exceeds the government's estimate for crop damage of P11 billion under a mild El Niño scenario.

Agriculture Secretary Bernardo Fondevilla, however, said as the latest estimate hasn't yet been verified, the department's official estimate of El Niño-related crop damage still stands at only P8.4 billion.

But even with only P8.4 billion worth of damage, the sector "most probably" will register a contraction in its first quarter output, Fondevilla said.

"It will certainly impact on growth in the first quarter, but as to what extent, we don't know yet," Fondevilla told reporters, adding the possibility of revising the department's growth targets will be discussed in a meeting next week.

Fondevilla also said the need to bring in additional rice imports won't be determined until after May, when the country would have already completed harvesting the bulk of its summer rice crop.

"The harvest period will last until May. Until then, we won't know the exact damage," he added. The weather bureau expects the drought to last until May.

The Philippines has so far signed contracts to import a record 2.4 million metric tons of rice, mostly from Vietnam, following extensive typhoon damage on the country's rice crop last year.

Based on a report submitted by Agriculture Undersecretary for Operations Joel Rudinas to Fondevilla, the bulk of the P11.2 billion in crop losses was sustained by rice and corn, the country's two most important crops.

Rudinas said around 298,852 tons of rice, estimated to be worth P5.0 billion and accounting for 4.1% of the country's projected first-half output of 7.2 million tons, have been lost to the drought.

Crop losses in the corn sector have been estimated at 460,848 tons, with an estimated value of P5.9 billion, representing 15.2% of the country's projected corn output in the first half of the year.

Rudinas added that damage to high-value crops have been estimated at P115 million, with the rest being accounted for by the fisheries sector. (Dow Jones)