With just a month before the May 10 elections, Senators Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. and Jinggoy Estrada continue to lead in the latest Pulse Asia survey.

They are followed by 12 other senatorial candidates who also have a statistical chance of winning if elections were held during the survey period.

The non-commissioned nationwide survey conducted last March 21 to 28 ranked Revilla (53 percent) and Estrada (52.1 percent) 1st and 2nd, respectively, among the 61 senatorial candidates in the May polls.

The survey fieldwork used face-to-face interviews with 3,000 respondents, who were asked to indicate their preference on a Commission on Elections (Comelec) duplicate ballot.

Revilla and Estrada were followed in the list by three incumbent senators, namely Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago (46.2 percent) who is in 3rd to 4th places, Senator Pilar Juliana “Pia” Cayetano (42.7 percent) who ranked 3rd to 6th, and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (42.1 percent) who occupies the 4th to 6th slots.

The survey results also ranked in 4th to 6th places former Senate President Franklin Drilon (41.1 percent).

In 7th to 8th places is former Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairman Vicente “Tito” Sotto III (35.1 percent), while former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Chairman Ralph Recto (32.5 percent) ranked 7th to 9th places.

Meanwhile, Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (30.6 percent) is in 8th to 10th places and former Senator Sergio “Serge” Osmeña III (27.9 percent) ranks 9th to 10th places.

Other probable winners based on the survey results are Senator Manuel “Lito” Lapid (23.9 percent, 11th to 13th), Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto “TG” Guingona III (22.7 percent, 11th to 14th), businessman Jose “Joey” de Venecia III (21.4 percent, 11th to 15th), and lawyer Gwendolyn Pimentel (19.6 percent, 12th to 16th).

“In a best case scenario, these four individuals would land within the winners’ circle of 12 senators from 11th to 12th places, but their lowest statistical rankings (13th to 16th) would put them out of the running for a senatorial seat,” Pulse Asia said.

Meanwhile, one in 10 registered voters or 10.7 percent does not express support for any senatorial candidate.

Pulse Asia noted that there are no significant changes in the voter preferences of these senatorial candidates between February and March 2010.

During this period, the most marked movements are recorded by Santiago (-3.2 percentage points) and Drilon (-3.9 percentage points).

Among those outside the winners’ circle, lawyer Alexander Lacson and Army Brig. Gen. Danilo Lim enjoy improvements in their voter preferences (+5.1 and +4.3 percentage points, respectively).

Meanwhile, electoral support for Muntinlupa Rep. Rozzano Rufino Biazon and Akbayan Partylist Rep. Ana Theresia “Risa” Hontiveros-Baraquel declined (-4.2 and -5.1 percentage points).

The survey results also showed that 10 party-list groups succeeded in meeting the 2 percent threshold for them to represent the marginalized groups in the Congress.

Among these probable winners, only two party-list groups would gain the maximum of three congressional seats, namely Gabriela (7.81 percent) and Bayan Muna (7.25 percent).

For the partylist elections, most registered voters expressed lack of knowledge about the party-list system.