Electricity consumers in Luzon, primarily in the franchise area of Manila Electric Company (Meralco), may experience anew rotating brownouts due to generation deficiency owing to shutdown of some power plants.

On Friday, system operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) initially announced the occurrence of rotating brownouts during peak demand hours, but the power outages were averted due to low demand.

“System operator NGCP did not implement load drop in the system during peak hour of 10-11 a.m. due to low actual demand. Capacity at 1100H was 7,104 megawatts. Forecast demand was 7,030mW but actual demand was only at 6,800mW,” the power transmission operator said.

It added that for the peak demand period of 2 p.m., there was very minimal reserve of 24mW, hence, no load curtailment or brownouts occurred.

Observers noted that the recurrent strike of supply shortages is harbinger of things to come for the power industry and will be the next administration’s biggest headache because lack of electricity supply will also raze to the ground any prospects for fresh investment flows as well as expansions of industries and businesses.

In NGCP’s initial announcement, it said that it will implement “load drop of 126mW and 200mW in the system during peaks hours (10-11 a.m. and 1-2 p.m. Friday) due to generation deficiency.”

NGCP though initially pinned its hopes at higher generation from hydro plants to ease Friday’s precarious supply condition. “Outages will be averted should Magat be able to run at full capacity of 272mW and Kalayaan with at least 360mW,” it said.

Lack of supply in that magnitude generally redounds to rotating brownouts of one hour in service areas of the country’s biggest utility firm Meralco. NGCP said that Meralco “is to schedule outages in its franchise area.”

At the moment, the generating units on shutdown are 1 and 2 of the Malaya thermal facility; Quezon Power’s coal plant; and Bauang diesel plant.

Other plants are reported to have limited generation. These are the Unit 2 of the Sual coal-fired facility which has been running at 585mW instead of its full rated capacity at 647mW; Kalayaan hydro plant contributing only 180mW instead of 720mW; and Magat generating 141mW instead of 272mW.

NGCP said the Quezon Power facility tripped due to electrical failure, and is undergoing repair and is expected to be fixed within the day. The Malaya and Bauang plants lack fuel, while the Sual plant encountered “pressure problems.”

The Magat hydro plant, it was noted, has low declaration for availability at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), while Kalayaan “had not been reliable due to low water elevation.”

The maintenance shutdown of most of the power plants in Luzon have long been over and the hydro facilities are now getting back into the grid but industry experts noted that supply remains the most pressing problem that the incoming administration will need to address judiciously and quick to spare the country from a power crisis that may replicate the magnitude of what was experienced in the early 1990s.

If there are no new investments for additional base load capacity in Luzon that can be firmed up from now and can be set on stream by 2013, Luzon will suffer worse outages and economic growth will definitely decelerate, experts say.