Two to three tropical cyclones might hit the country this month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Thursday.

PAGASA weather forecaster Arnel Gonzales said weather systems that will likely affect the country this month are the southwest monsoon, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the occurrence of two to three tropical cyclones.

“We usually average two to three tropical cyclones in July. These cyclones will likely concentrate on the northeastern side of Luzon,” Gonzales said.

The country averages 19 to 20 tropical cyclones in a year. However, the PAGASA recorded only one tropical cyclone (Agaton) that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) earlier this year.

If not for the delayed effect of El Niño last June, the country should have recorded three tropical cyclones at this time, PAGASA said.

Based on the PAGASA’s rainfall assessment data this month, above-normal rainfall is expected in Batanes (146.6 percent), Romblon (125.3 percent), Camarines Sur (126.1 percent), Catanduanes (145.2 percent), Capiz (121.0 percent), Negros Oriental (120.9 percent), Biliran (122.9 percent), Northern Samar (127.3 percent), Western Samar (126.2 percent), Sarangani (123.0 percent), Basilan (132.3 percent), and Sulu (144.7 percent).

Rainfall is assessed based on the following: <40 percent, way below normal; 41 percent to 80 percent, below normal; 81 percent to 120 percent, near normal; and >120 percent, above normal.

Other provinces are expected to experience below-normal or near- normal rainfall in July.

The PAGASA earlier warned the public against more intense typhoons, as compared to the cyclones in 2009, in the fourth quarter of this year because of the anticipated La Niña event.