Billions worth of economic losses, disruption of operations at vital installations, and extreme inconvenience to the public will ensue as the entire Luzon grid braces for massive blackouts that will likely last for two to three days due to the onslaught of typhoon “Basyang”.

The projection given by transmission operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) to recover from the system blackout and to restore power supply for the entire Luzon grid will be "two" to three days” hinged on what they termed as “conservative estimate”.

NGCP senior technical adviser Guillermo Redoblado noted that the incident was “unforeseen” because the forecasts given by the weather bureau never hinted Metro Manila getting extremely hit by the typhoon, the first strong one to hit the country this year.

The NGCP official attempted to play down speculations that the transmission concessionaire is not well-equipped yet at the scale on emergency-handling of such situations, hence, the power supply restoration from the blackouts has been taking longer than expected.

The system blackout started 12:42 a.m. Wednesday (July 14). As of noon on Tuesday, NGCP was just able to reinstate 27 percent of its system load.

At 6 p.m. Wednesday, the target will be to bring back load to NGCP’s system at about 60-percent level, with the expected synchronization of hydro and coal power plants within the day.

Out of the 4,500 megawatts needed to fully restore power supply for Metro Manila and the rest of the franchise of Manila Electric Company (Meralco), the system load wheeled to the distribution utility’s system as of 1 p.m. was still at 765mW.

NGCP noted that moves to bring back power supply are being hampered by confluence of factors, including the damage sustained by its lines due to advertisement billboards that fell on them as well as damages in insulators within the transmission system.

“We are rushing repair works,” was how NGCP officer-in-charge Anthony Almeda capped the commitment that the company would want to articulate to the public.

The hourly cost of blackouts to the economy has yet to be re-assessed, NGCP officials said, although previous estimates put it at billions on a daily basis.

As a policy forward, the company is appealing that a more stringent regulations be enforced on the setting up of billboards or tarpaulins from advertising firms, suggesting that they should not be placed anywhere near the transmission or distribution lines.

Nevertheless, it was observed by power industry players that the estimated power supply restoration process of up to three days is rather long. Under more efficient circumstances, it was noted that electricity supply should have been back into homes and businesses over stretch of 12 hours.

In the past, when the transmission firm was still under the state-owned National Power Corporation (NPC) and its spinoff National Transmission Corporation, system blackouts lasting five to 12 hours would already cause some heads to roll in the transmission firm’s management.

Energy Secretary Jose Rene D. Almendras said they will push for shorter span of electricity restoration, when feasible, and that he has been closely coordinating with all agencies and utilities involved to resolve the situation soonest.

The DoE will continue to monitor the restoration efforts until everything is back to normal,” its said in a press statement.

NGCP said that prior to the system blackout, there were initial line trippings at its 230-kilovolt Kalayaan-Gumaca and Kalayaan-Malaya lines at 10:01 p.m. on Tuesday (July 13); and had cascading effect on other lines tripping between 10:19 p.m. until the declaration of system blackout at 12:42 a.m.

The system operator reported at noon on Wednesday that “all NGCP substations in Metro Manila, including Araneta, Duhat, Balintawak and Sucat, have already been energized.”

It added that all these substations are directly connected to Meralco, hence, enabling the country’s largest power distribution firm to start restoring supply in its franchise area. The order of reinstating power supply will start with vital installations in Metro Manila, including businesses, airports and rail transit systems, among others.

Meralco, in its report to the DoE noted, “that bringing back electric service in some areas may remain a concern because of the obstructions.”

The power distribution firm further noted that “while restoring power is foremost, “precautionary and safety measures before restoring electricity” shall also be given prime importance.

It said that “its biggest priority is to restore the MRT-LRT lines.”

Meralco assured on Wednesday that it is doing everything it can to restore power in the whole of Luzon.

Meralco External Communications Head Joe Zaldarriaga said their workers have been working round-the-clock to restore power in all affected areas.

Zaldarriaga said that as of 6 a.m. Wednesday, only 46 out of its 688 (6.7 percent) distribution circuits and 32 out of 84 (38 percent) sub-transmission lines have been energized. He said this translates to around 365,000 or 7.8 percent out of the 4.7 million Meralco customers to whom power has already been restored. (With a report from Francis T. Wakefield)