It will be cooler but stormy for the third quarter.

This forecast was issued by Dr. Prisco Nilo, the country's top meteorologist just weeks after the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) failed to provide the precise path of the typhoon Basyang, the second to hit the country this year, and knocked out power supply in most of the metropolis.

Ill-equipped or not, Pagasa said the third quarter sees the continuing cooling across the equatorial Pacific.

Nilo said the reduction of sea surface temperature (SST) in central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP) would hasten the La Niña phenomenon.

La Niña brings heavy rains and flooding in contrast to El Niño that normally scorches nations in the Asia-Pacific.

“The La Niña condition which showed its early stages during late July is expected to strengthen through the coming months,” Nilo predicted.

The southwest monsoon (habagat) will peak anytime between now and September.

“Tropical cyclone activity is set likewise at its maximum. During the period, thunderstorm activities associated with the SW monsoon, tropical cyclone activities characterized by heavy rainfall and strong winds, and inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that reaches the northernmost part of the country during August, will prevail,” Nilo said.

Anywhere from seven to 10 tropical cyclones are likely to develop and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the quarter.