No bubble yet as Thai builders jump into condominium housing boom

By MARTIN PETTY and ORATHAI SRIRING
September 7, 2010, 7:53pm

BANGKOK, Sept. 7 (Reuters) – From its business district to leafy suburbs, new condominiums are sprouting almost daily across Bangkok, but developers and investors alike seem little concerned about a property bubble developing.

The country's real-estate stocks have been on the boil with the index of property stocks up 28 percent in the last three months and many listed companies have raised profit forecasts, confident of capitalizing on what they say is insatiable local demand.

Other Asian governments, worried about asset bubbles and housing affordability have tried to yank back their respective markets, with Thailand's nearby Southeast Asian neighbor, Singapore, the latest to unveil a slate of tightening measures.

But Thailand is unlikely to follow suit, analysts said.

''Interest rates are still low. There's still huge demand, particularly with units from listed companies. Growth in the property market tends to move in tandem with GDP and the economic fundamentals are more sound now,'' said Sorapong Jakteerungkul, a property analyst at Kasikorn Securities.

He pointed out that the government's only move has been to raise its key policy rate from a record low of 1.25 percent by half a percentage point, a rate is still low amid rebounding consumer spending.

''Lifestyles are changing and there's not been many obstacles for young workers and first-time buyers with low purchasing power to get credit,'' Sorapong said.

The number of new condominium units in Bangkok more than tripled to 13,028 in the first quarter, compared with only 3,389 in the second quarter of 2009, when Thailand emerged from its first recession in 11 years, according to Bank of Thailand data.

The resurgence of the Thai market revives memories of a 1997 bubble that touched off an economic storm in Asia, whipping Malaysia, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines as credit dried up even to reputable developers with fully-booked projects.

Across Bangkok, buildings were abandoned midway through construction.

Asian banks struggled for years to shed bad loans.

Fast-forward to 2010. Construction is surging. But economists and equity strategists say Thailand's economy is healthier, boasting a large trade surplus instead of its deficit of the 1990s, large foreign exchange reserves, robust financial markets, low corporate debt and nearly record low interest rates.

Thais also have 6.4 trillion baht ($205 billion) in deposits, which pay a low interest of about 1-2 percent at major banks and need a place to park their funds.

The central bank has forecast economic growth of 6.5-7.5 percent for 2010 while the International Monetary Fund predicts growth of as much as 8 percent, the best in 15 years and one of the highest in Southeast Asia.

And, crucially, there's a lot less hot money from foreign fund inflows.

Lertchai Kochareonrattanakul, a Fitch Ratings analyst whose specialist areas include property, sees more room for growth because of high demand.

''The speculation we see is different from in the past. It's less than before and it's Thais with a lot of liquidity, buying and looking for asset prices to appreciate,'' he said.

LPN Development, which specializes in small units close to rail links with starting prices of around 1 million baht ($32,000) was the frontrunner in tapping that demand.

It said two projects launched in March sold out in the first day, with sales of 4.7 billion baht. It launched two more projects and will start work this month on a riverside condominium.

LPN shares are up 33 percent this year.