Analysis
Abbas Facing Stark Choice
RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) – Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is in a bind after firmly linking any peace talks with Israel to continued restrictions on Jewish settlement construction in the West Bank.
With Israel refusing for now to extend the moratorium on new construction, his choices seem stark: quit the month-old US-backed talks at the risk of alienating President Barack Obama, or break a very public promise to his people not to negotiate without a construction ban.
As secretive US mediation efforts drag on, aides say Abbas may try to stall until after November’s US midterm elections, hoping Obama will then be bolder in pressuring Israel. If that fails, officials say, Abbas’ long-shot options include reconciling with the Gaza Strip’s Hamas militants en route to a new strategy or asking the UN to recognize a Palestinian state without Israeli agreement.
The Palestinian leader still hopes that between now and Friday, when he is to reveal his plans to the Arab League, US mediators will move Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to extend a 10-month-old ban on housing starts in West Bank settlements.
A Palestinian negotiator said the US is seeking an extra 60 days – a widely reported and somewhat mystifying timeframe that has drawn notice for being just enough to get past the midterms. Netanyahu initially said he would not renew the moratorium, which expired last week.
But on Monday he told his Cabinet he is in intense contacts with the US to try to salvage the talks. One Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to discuss the issue with reporters, said the premier has begun sounding out Cabinet ministers about the possibility of an extension in exchange for various US perks and assurances.
Abbas has repeatedly said he can’t negotiate if Israel does not extend the curbs on construction. Over the weekend, Abbas received wall-to-wall backing from senior Palestinian politicians for this position, and turning his back on them now seems politically unthinkable.
Even though the current restrictions still enabled thousands of housing units to be built, these were mostly projects whose launch predated the November, 2009, start of the moratorium – leaving hope for the Palestinians that eventually, once those are built, there will be a true freeze.
The settlement enterprise in general is toxic with Palestinians, who say that continued construction on lands they claim for their future state sends a message that Israel is not serious about peace.
About two-thirds of Palestinians oppose negotiations without a settlement freeze, according to a survey of 1,270 people published Monday by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. It had an error margin of 3 percentage points.
In Israel some believe Netanyahu faces similar constraints. He sold the initial moratorium as a one-time deal. A majority in his hard-line coalition opposes extending it and many would hardly mourn the demise of the talks.
If the impasse remains, a member of Abbas’ inner circle says the Palestinian leader will try to prevent the impression that he’s walking away from the talks – putting them quietly on the back burner while emphasizing that he remains ready to negotiate and is waiting for Israel to change its mind.
The idea is to get to the Nov. 2 midterm elections without a major crisis, the Abbas confidant said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing sensitive internal Palestinian discussions.
If talks break down for good, Abbas has several other choices.
Palestinian officials have recently floated the idea of asking the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem, territories Israel captured in the 1967 war.
However, a US veto appears inevitable for now.
As part of his attempt to persuade Netanyahu to extend the moratorium, Obama promised he would block any Security Council action for the next year, the Palestinian official said. US officials would not confirm such reports in recent days.
Abbas would only go to the Security Council if assured of broad international support, including from the US, the official said.




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