ON THE SAFE SIDE — Phivolcs director Dr. Renato Solidum Jr. points to Palawan as the only island in the Philippines that does not have an active fault and is far away from trenches. (Photo by BOB DUNGO, JR.)

MANILA, Philippines — The recent seismic activities that literally shook the world – including the devastating earthquake in New Zealand and the tsunami in Japan – have been keeping everyone on their toes.

This is especially true for Filipinos, considering that part of the Philippines lies on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire. No wonder that the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), headed by its director Renato U. Solidum, Jr., is in full-throttle mode these days.

In fact, even while doing this interview with Dr. Solidum, he would constantly receive calls and text messages on his mobile phone, most of them informing him of another aftershock that was just recorded in Japan.

“I’m on call by anyone, especially by the media. Information and education are major components of my job,” Solidum informs us.

Surprisingly, the said text messages didn’t come from human beings, but from a computer connected to a network and linked to different organizations around the world.
Earthquake-related informations are being shared throughout this network.

This is how technology works now and unknown to many, this kind of technology is already available in the Philippines. The Phivolcs’ Data

Receiving Center, for instance, is replete with state-of-the-art equipment like the digital seismograph. The agency even produced its own software called the Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS), which maps the earthquake intensity and its possible effects. They are also adding more stations to the Philippine Seismic Network, which currently has 66 manned and unmanned stations that monitor seismic activities all over the country.

Indeed, Phivolcs has gone from using the ancient needle-on-a-roll-ofpaper seismograph, to being a sophisticated hub of scientific activities.

Solidum is proud to say that they have finally achieved their dream of having such highly-advanced equipment that they’ve been eyeing for the longest time.

Solidum, 49, has been with the institution since 1984. He was immediately hired at Phivolcs after graduating from the University of the Philippines- Diliman with a degree in Bachelor of Science, major in Geology, upon the recommendation of his professor and former Phivolcs director Dr. Raymundo Punongbayan. He earned his masteral degree in Geological Sciences from the University of Illinois, and his PhD in Earth Sciences from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California.

Today at Phivolcs, Solidum leads the agency not only in monitoring and warning potential threats of earthquakes, eruptions, and tsunamis, but also in assessing hazards and risks, doing research and development, and bringing down the scientific information they produce to the people.

“Our approach is many-pronged. We produce awareness materials. We produce guidelines on earthquake preparedness and tsunami preparedness. We develop tools that can help disaster managers and development planners integrate hazards and risks in their plans so they can also protect themselves economically from the possible impact of a hazard. I think our role is using science and introducing science to have safer communities,” he shares.

In this 60 Minutes interview, Dr. Renato Solidum, Jr. takes time off from his very demanding job as he discusses the science of earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunami; debunks some earthquake myths, and shares with readers how exciting and earthshaking life in the wonderful world of science can be. (Angelo G. Garcia)

STUDENTS AND CAMPUSES BULLETIN (SCB): You have been quoted to have said that the country is due for a big earthquake. Was the one felt in Metro Manila last March 21 already the Big One?
DR. RENATO U. SOLIDUM, JR. (RS): 'Yung March 21? Hindi pa 'yun! Maliit lang 'yun. What did you feel when that earthquake happened? Nanginginig? Balewala 'yun. A real destructive earthquake is when you have difficulty standing. That's intensity 7 at least. When you cannot stand, that's intensity 8.

If the Manila Trench scenario happens, which is close to magnitude 8, it will affect not only Manila but other places. But the impact of the earthquake compared to the movement of the fault is lesser, kasi malayo. What we are worried about is not the shaking but the tsunami.

People ask about magnitude and damage. Remember that magnitude is the energy released when the fault start to move below the ground.

As it breaks the ground, it releases energy that travels up to the surface. It will encounter rocks along the way and the rocks will partly absorb the energy. The intensity will not be the
energy that reaches the surface.

Hindi lang pataas 'yun, kundi palayo din sa pinanggalingan, it will also diminish. Away from the epicenter, the intensity will also decrease.

SCB: Will a 9.0 earthquake happen in Manila like it happened in Japan?
RS: I think people should understand the reason why we emphasize on scenarios. Take the case of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake. Will it happen in Metro Manila? I think not.

The reason is very simple.

The magnitude or energy released by an earthquake is dependent on how long the ground was ruptured.

If you have a bond paper and you want to tear it apart, you will exert a certain amount of force. If I give you a cartolina, you need more energy.

The fault is the reverse, the longer the rupture, the more energy it releases, the higher the magnitude.

For a magnitude 9 earthquake to occur, there must be a very long rupture. It is impossible for certain localities because the faults have limited length. That is why I always say that we need to prepare for the right scenarios.

SCB: What are these scenarios?
RS: For Metro Manila, we studied 18 earthquake scenarios, coming from the Valley Fault system, the Manila Trench, the China Sea, the Lubang Fault and many other faults in Luzon. The fault in Metro Manila can generate a magnitude 7.2 earthquake.

It will not generate a magnitude 9.0. The fault offshore, the trench, where the plates would dive, are capable of magnitude 8.0 or greater. In general, inland faults are capable of magnitude
7.0 or greater. The trench would have the capacity to generate a stronger earthquake. However, if they are further from land, even if they have a higher magnitude and energy released, that energy will diminish as the energy travels to the land.

That is why the earthquake in Japan, magnitude 9.0, was not very destructive because of shaking because the shaking intensity that reached the land was actually lower than if the earthquake occurred on land. I would reckon that what happened during the 1990 Luzon earthquake in terms of intensity on land was higher than what happened in Japan because the fault in Japan was offshore. Mahina lang.

SCB: How many active faults do we have?
RS: We have more than a dozen big ones. The longest is the Philippine Fault Zone, from Luzon to Mindanao. You can actually divide it into segments. If I subdivide it into segments, mas marami. But we just consider it as one. It's too difficult to count (laughs). But it's only one system.

SCB: Are we exempted from being affected if we are very far from an active fault?
RS: In general, even if there is no active fault where you are, you can still\ be affected by strong ground shaking.

The only island in the Philippines that does not have an active fault and is far away from trenches is Palawan.

SCB: Is Phivolcs equipped enough to predict when an earthquake is happening?
RS: What we're trying to do is educate the people and increase the level of understanding. Even if we cannot predict exactly when an earthquake will happen, we know where it will come from. We can estimate the magnitude of the earthquake and if we know the magnitude, we can estimate the ground shaking intensity and the possible hazards. If you know the hazards, then we can design our buildings to withstand those hazards.

Very simple! It is the buildings that collapse and the unpreparedness of people that kill. We don't need to know when the earthquakes will occur.

We have produced a software called the Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System. It can simulate the potential shaking and intensity, whether there will be a landslide or if it is offshore, how high the tsunami will be or its arrival time.

SCB: It was just surprising that experts were able to tell the estimated time of arrival of the earthquake in Japan…
RS: It’s very easy, we have that too. We have a standard operating procedure. You don’t warn and give out info during the earthquake, we need to have the scenario before the earthquake. So for example, I have to understand where the earthquake is coming from, I have to know what type of faults are in the area, and if I’m given a certain magnitude. If the depth given is correct, I can say, even if it’s magnitude is 7.7 it will affect us or not. So we have that also evaluated.

During the March 11 tsunami in Japan, we only raised the alert for tsunami at a maximum of level two out of three levels of alert. If there’s an earthquake, of greater magnitude of 6 or 6.5, that can generate a tsunami. At 2:08 p.m, we raised the alert level to one, we knew we had four hours of lead time before the tsunami arrives. We can calculate if there will be a tsunami here, how far, how fast will the tsunami arrive. So we have time to monitor what’s happening in Japan and Phivolcs here, we have a computer here that can monitor the height of the water reaching the coastal areas of selected countries all over the Pacific.

So we get the data via the internet and we plot it, we have a software.

Are we ready?
SCB : The Department of Education (DepEd) recently closed schools at Bagong Silangan which were reported to be sitting on top of a fault…
RS: For earthquake hazards, we share with the DepEd, or with anyone, the possible earthquake hazards.

The first is the ground rupture, 'yung pagbitak ng lupa. What we are avoiding there is for a building or any house to be built on top of an active fault. If the fault moves, then the building will be ruptured as well.

That is the first hazard.

Any building away from the fault can be affected by strong ground shaking. That would be an engineering issue. For example, the 1990 Luzon earthquake was centered in Rizal, Nueva Ecija, but I think you would remember that the cities affected were Baguio, Cabanatuan, Dagupan, which were far away from the epicenter. That means that a structure need not be on top of an active fault to be affected. 'Yun 'yung dapat malinaw. We also look at other hazards like liquefaction, where the ground becomes like liquid or quicksand. Landslides, tsunamis, those are the hazards that we look for.

But the real message here is that we should not build on top of an active fault but we can be affected even if the house is away from the fault up to 25 or 50 kilometers. So people should prepare even though they’re far from an active fault. Otherwise, if you don’t prepare, your house can be damaged.

SCB: Are you closely coordinating with other department in identifying ar eas that are specifically at risk?
RS: Our products can be used by anyone, by any other agency, and we belong to the same sector of society, which is on the government side. We have the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. We not only provide info on earthquakes, we also provide info on earthquake hazards, volcano-related hazards, tsunami hazards, and we produce a lot of information materials to educate not only the schools, but any other sector.

SCB: You said in a Senate hearing that as long as buildings are up to the Building Code, there is no need to worry. But how about the human element? Are the people prepared for disasters like earthquakes?
RS: There are several levels of preparedness that we must do:

First is individual preparedness.

This is essentially the activities that need to be done before, during, and after an earthquake. The drills, for instance, should be done before so that during the earthquake, you just
do what you have practiced.

Preparedness is not only individual, but also structural, making the buildings strong enough to resist strong ground shaking. They must know which parts of the building\ are relatively stronger during an earthquake. Corners where there are posts and beams are the strongest part of the building. People need to know which parts to avoid during ground shaking, like windows that may break or cabinets that might topple, or chandeliers and ceiling fans that might fall down. They should know the exit routes, the open areas, and the evacuation centers.

After the earthquake, they also need to know how to prevent further injuries or casualties or other events like fires or floods. Maraming preparation kailangan. I always emphasize that for one to help others, one must be alive (laughs). Everyone must be alive!

SCB: What about the preparedness of the community as a whole?
RS: That is second level, community preparedness. For preparedness, sometimes people rely on their experience. But if we rely only on our experience, we will not be able to understand the possibilities of what can happen because some events would be more than our lifetime, or have happened before we were born. That is why we need science-based scenarios. That is what we advocate. Use science! And science isn't just modeling what might happen, but also evaluating what happened in the past based on history and experience.

SCB: Structural engineers say that buildings built after 2001 can withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake, but with the recent earthquake in Japan, would you advise a revision of the Building Code?
RS: The Building Code has been revised in 2001 and last year. There is also a Structural Code, at madaling ma-revise 'yun, madaling i-handle 'yun.

In our Structural Code way back in 2001, our collaboration with the Association of Structural Engineers and the Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers became very fruitful because they are now applying the information from Phivolcs and have included in their own code the active faults map of Phivolcs, and that would serve as a basis for designing their buildings since 2001. Engineers would need to know how far the project site is from a known active fault so they can design it better.

Even engineers must be re-engineered in terms of their understanding because not so many are experts on how earthquakes are generated or what magnitude would be generated per fault. That is one of our activities, one of the things we are researching on.

SCB: Where is government in all these preparations?
RS: That is third level of preparedness, governance. For most people, governance would be the national and local officials formulating laws and implementing the laws. For example, the Building Code. Government should be making sure that critical facilities are strong. But in terms of private buildings and individual houses, the government can only do so much. Once you get your permit, you're allowed to do your construction. Who will definitely know what's going on? Just you and your contractor, who is essentially representing you. If something happens to your building, who is at fault?

I try to emphasize that governance should not only focus on the government but also on us as individual citizens. There are many things that can be done, because preparedness is everyone's business.

SCB: From being out in the field, how would you assess the preparedness on a community level? Are most communities in the country prepared for an event like an earthquake?
RS: Let me say that Filipinos prepare more for typhoons and floods because these occur annually.

The real threat from earthquakes is the collapse of buildings. In general, many have followed the Code, but there are still a percentage of people who do not actually get permits and would not even consult any engineer when they build their own house. So in that sense, there are people who are not prepared in terms of their houses.

SCB: Do Filipinos really take the warnings seriously, in cases of tsunami for instance?
RS: Based on my experience, I've been going around down to the lowermost levels of our community, when it comes to tsunami preparedness, it is easier to convince rural areas than urban areas. The rural areas take it more seriously.
In urban areas and even in rural areas, it is easier to convince students. They are more serious when they do the drill. It's easier to teach children because they are open-minded. Many public schools have been joining and even some businesses. People have become more aware and businesses have been preparing for an earthquake.

SCB: During the Senate hearing, you said at the most we will have four meters kung magkakaroon ng tsunami?
RS: Sa Manila Bay. Depende ‘yan sa earthquake and sa area. Sa ibang lugar mas mataas. We have estimates of like 11 meters. The reason why the wave will not be much higher here than in Manila Bay is because it’s shallower, so the energy of the earthquake is lessened. Since they will be shallower near Corregidor then it lessens the energy so it will not be very high. Of course, it will be shallower further inland so in Manila it will not be very high anymore.

Of volcanoes and eruptions
SCB: What about volcanic eruptions, are we expecting another one like that of Pinatubo to happen anytime soon?
RS: We have 300 volcanoes in the country. Only 23 are really active, in the sense that it erupted historically. If the eruption occurred within the last 10,000 years, kahit isa lang, active siya. That is why even if Pinatubo did not have any explosions on record, the carbon date on one sample indicate that there was an eruption 500 years before. This information on Pinatubo was released in 1987 by another group, and we then classified it as active. Then it erupted in 1991.

Now those kinds of volcanoes with the eruptions similar to Pinatubo are rare. But there are other volcanoes that can erupt like Pinatubo. If you witnessed one, you are very lucky because you have witnessed a very explosive eruption. But if you ask me if there will be another volcano that will erupt like Pinatubo? Yes, there is.

SCB: Can you predict volcanic eruptions?
RS: Yes we can, but they have to show signs they are reactivating. One way of giving some sense to it is how often the volcano erupts, or how often the fault moves so we can estimate the cycle of the movement of the earthquake. We study how often the volcano erupts as explosively as Pinatubo, which is usually every 1,000 years. Napaaga lang siya in 1991.

SCB: Can earthquakes trigger volcanic eruptions?
RS: Volcanoes trigger earthquakes, but this typically do not damage areas beyond the volcano. But the other way around? Yes, it is possible. Think of a soda. I won't mention any brand, bawal (laughs)! If you shake the soda, the carbon dioxide separates and it will bubble. It will make the liquid light, so it will rise. If you take the cap off, it will flow out. So an earthquake can trigger an eruption. It may not solely trigger the eruption, but it can make an eruption occur earlier. But it only happens if the volcano has magma that is getting ready to be erupted.
If there is no magma, there is no eruption. That's what happened to Pinatubo. It was erupting every 1,000 years, and then it became 500, napaaga dahil sa 1990 earthquake.

SCB: What volcanoes are under your tight watch now?
RS: We monitor Taal, Mayon, Bulusan, Kanlaon, and Hibok-hibok, and two other volcanoes in Mindanao. Among those, tatlo ang at abnormal level: Bulusan, Mayon, at Taal. Bulusan is abnormal because it shows a different explosion. The rainwater that seeps into the ground encounters hot rocks below Bulusan and that water is converted into steam. If the steam doesn't get out, it will increase the pressure and explode. There is no magma involved, it's just a hydrothermal explosion.

Mayon is abnormal because its crater is still glowing. It last erupted in 2009, mainit pa. Taal is a volcano that should be carefully watched out for and people should prepare for its possible activity. It last erupted in 1977. Last week we released an advisory that people should not go inside the crater because the carbon dioxide has increased from a normal level of below 1,000 to a current level of 4,600 tons per day emission. At the end of January, mga 2,000 lang. Four times the normal level. And you know what happens when you inhale carbon dioxide. You can collapse, get dizzy, or even die.

Mythbusting
SCB: Recently, we got an email saying it is not right to stay under the table during an earthquake. Is that right?
RS: What do you think?

SCB: We deleted it because we didn’t believe it. What earthquake myths need to be debunked?
RS: That is a myth, for one. ‘Wag naman kayo gullible. With the current technology, sometimes we’re too trusting on what is posted on the web. And sometimes we forget to ask the proper authority. No organization — disaster management or scientific organization — uses the “Triangle of Life”, which originated from only a single person, whose claims were investigated to be totally false. His introduction was, he’s an expert who has undergone investigations of 800 buildings that collapsed. That’s not true, who can do that? Second, he claimed to be a UN expert, obviously not.

Anyway, the Triangle of Life says, instead of hiding underneath the table, you lie beside the table in a fetal position. If the ceiling collapses, it will form a triangle. Do you think that’s possible?

SCB: No, but he also has pictures to show...
RS: Madali ang gumawa ng picture. But do you think that picture was predicted? Do you think the triangle can be predicted? In a real earthquake, remember I mentioned to you that if the earthquake is strong, you cannot stand and the tables would move. And the reason why there is the suggestion for “duck, cover, and hold”, duck and cover under the table but you don’t hold your head, you don’t hold your hands together but you hold the legs of the table. Otherwise, the table will separate from you or what you do is adjust your position as the table moves. So, how can a ceiling form a triangle if there is no table within that place? Second, you’re exposing yourself to a direct hit from a slab that might fall down. You don’t need the whole ceiling to collapse on you, you only need one hollow block to fall on your head.

In the picture in the email, one person is shown beside a refrigerator because a refrigerator is supposed to be a metal so if something hits on top of it, it will not be squashed very thinly.
Of course you would know that during an earthquake, the refrigerator will slide or will topple on you.

So, the Triangle of Life of Mr. Doug Copp is a misguided suggestion. Simply because the suggestion doesn’t take into account the dynamic movement of anything during an earthquake.

Life as a geologist
SCB: People usually hear of you only in times of earthquakes. What are your other tasks? What exactly goes on at Phivolcs if there are no earthquakes?
RS: We have more work. We have to develop our network, prepare our own standard operating procedures, to teach other agencies to develop their own SOPs and practice it, we study where the faults are.

SCB: As Phivolcs director, where do you spend your time mostly, on the field or in the office?
RS: Both, but most of the time, I’m outside because I talk to many people. I’m asked to deliver lectures even to small kids, communities, businessmen, corporations, schools. I like to give lectures to students. I’m on call by anyone, especially by the media. But I always request that if there is no emergency, not to disturb me from 8 to 9:30 on Sundays, I’m in church. I will not answer their call if it’s not emergency (laughs). But anytime of the day, anywhere in the world, media can call me.

SCB: Have you always wanted to be in this career, to be a geologist?
RS: No, I wanted to be an engineer.

SCB: Why the detour?
RS: I come from Romblon, I grew up there until high school. I didn’t know about geology. In the province, who knows about geology? (laughs) Typically they know about doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers. So I wanted to be a civil engineer because that’s what I knew. I passed but I didn’t pass the quota for engineering in the University of the Philippines, so you enrol in a non-quota course.

On my assigned day to enrol, I left Project 3 at 8 a.m. and arrived in UP at 8:30. That was a big mistake, or maybe it was not! Maybe it was good because once I reached the College of Arts and Letters, the non-quota block sections were already filled up. And I saw geology, the line was short so I enrolled. I liked it and I did not transfer to Engineering.

SCB: And now you’re here!
RS: (Laughs) So I really believe that God places you in a situation where he wants you to be there. Kasi I didn’t want to be a geologist and look at my story, it’s funny. But I realized I didn’t want to transfer anymore because I like it.

SCB: What in geology particularly attracted you to it?
RS: Anything. I could have worked in the mines, in oil companies. Instead, I worked here because my former teacher and the former director of Phivolcs invited me to work in government, si Dr. Raymundo Punongbayan. He only said three things. Please work. Help your country. It’s not a high-paying job but you can earn a higher degree. That was it. And many of us worked here. Our mindset then was not to have money but to help, to pay back. Money then has high value. My salary in 1984 was like P1,800 per month (laughs). Not much no?

Dr. Punongbayan was our mentor, our father. He taught us how to communicate to people the important things that they should know, na dapat may quality palagi ‘yung binibigay mong information. For me, it’s always important that you give the facts, what is the real score and then tell them what to do.

SCB: Are there still many young people attracted to the science of geology?
RS: More now than before because mining is revitalized. Metals are important in our modern world. Many geologists go to mining and oil companies, power development. A few would go to government and also work as geologists that would look at the environment.

The family man
SCB: Do you conduct your own drills at home?
RS: Yes. So what I do is reinforce what they’ve learned by discussing which part of the house should they avoid. Sa earthquake, whether they should hide or stay. I always remind them to wear slippers. I tell my three children

SCB: Don’t your wife and kids demand more time from you?
RS: I think they know my job. When my kids were growing up, they didn’t understand the significance of my kind of work. As a scientist, I don’t only deal with people here, I also have to fulfill my role as a partner of international organizations. So I go to different places in the Philippines and different parts of the world to discuss and share what we have done here and vice-versa. You improve your capacity to do things by learning more from others too. Nung una sinasabi nila “Daddy saan kayo pupunta? Bakit hindi na lang kayo mag meeting dito. Parang ang dali lang ‘no. My son said when he was trying to select what course he would take in UP, whether accounting, engineering or geology, he said “Dad I think you’re known by many people. But if I have a family, I don’t want to be in your shoes where you are from time to time out.”

We value our relationship. Work is a manifestation of your relationship with your family. That is my philosophy. God, family, country and work. If everything is right, everything will be alright.

SCB: What do you do to relax?
RS: I read. I read a lot of newspapers, anything. Before, I used to be very athletic. But when I became the director, my time was shortened. So I wake up early now and do exercises
at least 30 minutes a day. Before, I used to work even on Sundays when I didn’t have a kid yet. When I went to the US to study I didn’t bring my family, so my kids grew up without me with them. My PhD program in San Diego was seven years.

My priority is my family. Weekends, nights, whenever I go home, my wife and I would partner in discussing with them the lessons. Kung walang emergency, I’ll be home working.  I also work at home! I prepare my presentations at home.

SCB: Frankly, do you yourself feel a tinge of panic when there is an earthquake?
RS: Whenever I experience an earthquake, I don’t panic. Like in Japan, our monitor indicated magnitude 8.7. Our other computer sent me a magnitude 8.4. USGS indicated a 7.9 earthquake. But whether it was a 7.9 or 8.7, that was a strong earthquake and I was worried for Japan. There was a strong earthquake and will more likely be a tsunami.

But we have to focus on the Philippines. Once you know what would happen, you don’t panic but you are concerned. It’s always a concern because even when I was in Pinatubo and it was exploding, I knew that the volcano can be very, very violent. You would not know how strong the eruption would be because you don’t have any idea of the explosiveness of the volcano.