At last, conditions are right

Number Don't Lie
By ANDREW JAMES MASIGAN
January 16, 2012, 3:50am

MANILA, Philippines — Our neighbors in the region have all had their time as the flavors of the season of the investing community. The more senior among us will remember how many of them quickly developed into strong, competitive nations as foreign direct investments (FDIs) flooded their economies.

In the early ’80s, we saw how Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Hongkong had the sweet investor spotlight shine upon them and how they rapidly turned into Asia’s newly industrialized countries (NICs). In the late ’80s, it was China’s turn as they opened their economy to free enterprise. China’s move precipitated a 30-year run of unparalleled growth, making them the planet’s second largest economy today.

Thailand and Malaysia also came to its own in the early ’90s as the preferred manufacturing hubs for the Japanese and Americans. In less than a decade, the ASEAN duo turned into vibrant export and consumer machines. Vietnam followed suit as it liberalized its economy in the late ’90s. This paved the way for the rapid modernization of this once Marxist state. More recently, Indonesia has gotten a lot of attention—given its good economic fundamentals and ginormous market of consumers, now nearing a quarter of a billion people.

As news about Asia’s booming economies crowd the airwaves, I often wonder when it will be our turn, or worse, if our best times are behind us. We used to be the continent’s most modern economy, after all, owing to being part of the American commonwealth.

While it’s always good to look to the past and reminisce about old glory days, fact is we have a lot of catching up to do given the many opportunities that passed us by in the last 30 years. There has always been people or situations that turned investors off and stopped us dead in our tracks from truly taking off.

In the late ’80s and ’90s, it was the coup d’etats led by right wing groups. In 1991, it was the Pinatubo eruption and the eviction of the U.S. bases. The years 1998 to 2001 saw former President Estrada’s reign of political uncertainty, and from 2001 to 2010, GMA’s questionable mandates and corrupt style of governance repelled investors altogether.

Conditions were never investment-friendly in the Philippines…until now.

A new wave of positive change in the political and economic realms give us a reason to be Asia’s next favored investment destination. There are 15 reasons I say this….

The fighting fifteen

1. Corruption and poor governance are issues that have worked against us for many decades. Today, government is addressing these issues by submitting itself to a strict code of conduct and leading by example. It is in the process of installing vital reforms to strengthen our institutions and deter corruption from occurring in the lower trenches of the bureaucracy.

2. Confidence in the justice system is being restored by eliminating personalities and practices that lead to biased, unmerited and prejudiced decisions.

3. It will be recalled that government’s holdout on public spending was the primary reason why the economy fell short of targets last year. Two weeks ago, government announced that it is pump-priming the economy with 2,187 new infrastructure projects worth R142 billion to be disbursed beginning the first quarter of the year. Spending at these levels can easily add two percentage points to GDP growth.

4. The country presently enjoys macroeconomic fundamentals strong enough to weather the turbulence brought about by the EU financial crisis and slowdown of the U.S. and Japanese economies. Gross Internal Reserves (GIR) stand at a record high of $76 billion; Balance of Payments (BOP) is in surplus territory, inflation is contained at a comfortable 4.5 to 4.8 percent; and both currency and interest rates are stable.

5. Government’s two investment-generating arms, the Board of Investments (BOI) and PEZA, both registered hefty increases last year. The BOI posted a 22 percent increase in its investment haul to R369.9 billion, while PEZA posted a 41 percent increase to R204.4 billion. Since new investments translate to new jobs, manufacturing activities, exports and consumption, we can say that 2012 is off to a flying start.

6. The construction boom is far from over and will continue to rally on the back of strong demand. For 2012, more than 600,000 square meters of prime office space is set to come online. Residential developments will continue to grow at double-digit pace, as it is only now that the country is catching up with its three million housing backlog. In hospitality, 9,998 new hotel rooms are being built this year to support the anticipated increase in tourist arrivals.

7. The Philippines is now the 4th largest recipient of foreign remittances, trailing India, China and Mexico. This year, we are expecting north of $25 billion in OFW remittances to add to our revenue base and fire up consumption. This amount does not (even) include OFW remittances outside the banking system.

8. The Philippines is now the number one Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) country for voice services, surpassing India. The industry now employs 700,000 people and is seen to grow beyond 10 percent in 2012. The International Herald Tribune declares the Philippines the world’s preferred destination for voice-related outsourcing. As of last December, 20 of the world’s top 40 financial institutions are preparing to join the 12 already operating their back offices in the country.

9. Tourism is set to reach new highs as the DoT unveiled our new country brand and launches its international ad campaign. The Philippines attracted 3.8 million tourists last year and anticipates 4.2 million in 2012. Its contribution to the economy is estimated to increase by $6 billion. Great opportunities lie in tourism-related businesses, which is why China’s Jin Jiang Hotel group and Malaysia’s Tune Hotels are investing in the country in a big way, among other big players.

10. Wage increases in China and the appreciation of its currency, the renminbi, has eroded its labor cost advantage. Studies show that Philippine labor cost is now lower than that of China when the costs of learning curve and productivity are factored in.

11. Vietnam is plagued with problems of high inflation, coupled with the significant currency devaluation.

12. Indonesia and India are now experiencing double-digit household income growth, which takes them out of the list of low-cost countries.

13. The ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) will be in full effect in a few years, and the Philippines is at the center of it all. Geographically the Philippines is the closest to ASEAN’s largest trading partners—China, Japan and Korea.

14. Items 10 through 13 give the Philippines a clear competitive advantage to attract FDIs.

15. Finally, the President categorically declared that he will be giving the economy primary focus this year as most of the land mines of the past administration have been defused.

What they say about us

Bloomberg declared the Philippines “The Economy to Watch,” given its strong economic fundamentals and a Chief Executive who refuses to commit the same mistakes from the past.

Singapore-based think tank Synovate Consulting says the Philippines has the inherent attractiveness and abilities to be the next favored investment destination in ASEAN.

Standard & Poor’s says that the Philippines’ external vulnerability has diminished and expects further credit rating upgrades in the future.

Clearly, conditions are in place for us to realize our long-awaited dream of breaking away economically and joining the ranks of the vibrant economies in the region.

Barring any fortuitous event or act of sheer stupidity, 2012 should be a banner year for the country.

Andrew is an economist, political analyst and businessman. He is a 20-year veteran in the hospitality and tourism industry. For comments and reactions, e-mail andrew_rs6@yahoo.com. Follow Andrew on Twitter @andrew_masigan.

 

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