Because the Chinese New Year fell between the first two months of 2013, global air travel demand rose 2.7% in January this year, showing a continuation of the uptick in passenger travel that began at the end of 2012, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA) data.
The distorted demand figure was slightly ahead of the 2.2% expansion in capacity. Load factors stood at 77.1%.
The comparisons to such a strong month made January 2013 demand look weaker than the underlying trend would indicate, IATA noted.
After adjusting for such seasonal factors, IATA estimates that the actual growth would have been 3.5%. This growth is still lower than the 5.3% 2012 average.
However, air travel growth slowed sharply through the year and the results of the past few months represent an acceleration of demand growth.
“Passenger travel is growing in line with business confidence levels. Recent months have seen some positive economic signs emerge in both the US and China and the Eurozone crisis seems to have stabilized,” observed Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
“Of course risks remain; the impact of US budget cuts has yet to play out and fuel prices are high. But even with those headwinds—real and potential—we still see underlying support for continued and potentially even strengthened growth,” he added.
International markets outperformed the global industry average in January with a 3.7% increase in demand against a 2.7% capacity expansion. This led to load factors of 77.6%.
Asia-Pacific airlines have captured over half of the growth in demand between October and January.
Although the year-on-year growth rate in January (0.1%) was distorted by the timing of the Chinese New Year, after adjusting for seasonal factors, January saw demand growth in the region of 3.0% for Asia-Pacific airlines compared to a year ago. Load factors for the region’s airlines stood at 77.8%.
Middle East airlines posted the strongest growth rates for January with a 14.3% increase in demand. This was nearly evenly matched by a 14.4% growth in capacity and load factors for the region were above the global average at 78.6%.
The region’s carriers have successfully tapped into demand from emerging markets with the strength of their network structures and efficient hubs.
African airlines posted 9.4% growth, ahead of a 5.8% capacity expansion. Despite this, the region’s airlines recorded the weakest load factors at 67.9%.
Economic growth rates in many African nations are strong—particularly those in resource-rich West Africa. This is providing the demand for a sustained market expansion.
Latin American airlines posted the second highest growth in demand at 12.2%. This was outpaced by capacity growth of 13.7%. Load factors stood at 79.0%, only exceeded by North American airlines.